Article by Dr Rashi Randev
India and Canada have put a number on their reconciliation: C$70 billion. That is the two-way trade target the two governments have set for 2030, more than double the roughly C$30.4 billion they traded in goods and services last year. It is ambitious, and it is the clearest sign yet that both capitals now see each other as economic partners rather than diplomatic adversaries.
The momentum is real. This month, nearly 300 Canadian business delegates toured Mumbai and Bengaluru looking for deals, and negotiators wrapped up a fifth round of trade talks in Ottawa on October 9. But a target is only a promise. Whether India and Canada reach it depends on keeping politics from derailing the relationship a second time.
What Changed in Ottawa
The simplest explanation is arithmetic. For most of the Trudeau years, the Liberals governed without a majority and leaned on the New Democratic Party, led by Jagmeet Singh, to survive. That dependence gave a vocal segment of Canada’s Sikh community an outsized voice in foreign policy, and New Delhi’s complaints about separatist activity were treated as a domestic irritant rather than a security concern.
The 2025 election broke that equation. Mark Carney’s Liberals came within a seat of a majority, the NDP lost official party status, and Singh lost his own seat. Carney owes no political debt to the separatist fringe, and it shows. His statement on the anniversary of the Air India bombing this June condemned terrorism in every form, without the careful hedging of earlier years.
The second driver is economics. With Washington using tariffs as a weapon against friends and rivals alike, Canada needs markets beyond its southern neighbour, and India is the fastest-growing large economy in the world. A government chasing new growth can not afford to let a fringe agenda set the tone with a partner of that size.
What C$70 Billion Looks Like
The target is not an abstraction. It is already taking shape in specific deals. During Carney’s visit to New Delhi in March, Saskatoon-based Cameco signed a C$2.6 billion agreement to supply India’s nuclear reactors with uranium from 2027 to 2035. The visit produced more than ten commercial agreements worth over C$5.5 billion across energy, technology and manufacturing.
Capital is moving, too. Canadian pension and wealth funds have already put about US$73 billion into India, much of it into roads, ports, renewables, and real estate. That makes Canadian retirees direct stakeholders in India’s growth.
The trade itself plays to each side’s strengths. Canada sells India uranium, potash, pulses, and critical minerals that India’s farms and factories need. India sells Canada pharmaceuticals, engineering goods, and the IT services that run much of Canadian banking and retail. Last year, Canada imported about $9.7 billion in goods from India and exported $3.9 billion, according to official figures. A trade deal that cuts tariffs and settles investment rules could lift both numbers sharply.
India Played a Patient Hand
India deserves credit for how it handled the opening. It never accepted the allegations of state involvement in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, whom New Delhi had designated a terrorist, and it repeatedly asked Ottawa to share evidence. But it also did not let anger harden into permanent hostility.
When a new government arrived, New Delhi moved quickly. Modi met Carney at the G7 summit in Kananaskis in June 2025, and the two agreed to restore high commissioners. By November they had agreed to restart trade negotiations. In March 2026, Carney came to New Delhi, and the two sides signed the terms of reference for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).
This was Indian diplomacy at its best: firm on sovereignty and security, flexible on process, and ready to offer Canada what it badly needed, which was access to a vast growth market.
What Could Derail the Target
Every one of these deals is exposed to political risk. The separatist networks that froze trade talks in 2023 are still active.
This summer, activists unveiled a so-called “Embassy of the Republic of Khalistan” in a Surrey gurdwara, alongside fresh plans for an overseas referendum by Sikhs for Justice, a group banned in India. Canada’s own intelligence service now describes Khalistani actors as engaged in planning and financing violence abroad. That is a welcome admission, but words in a report are not the same as prosecutions.
The Nijjar case is another live wire. Four Indian nationals charged in May 2024 are being tried in the B.C. Supreme Court, and federal lawyers have sought to keep some material secret on national security grounds. Whatever the verdict, separatist groups will try to use the trial to reopen old wounds and paint India as the villain.
There is also the risk of a political reversal.
A future minority Parliament in Ottawa could revive the old incentive to court radical voices. Investors need confidence that a uranium contract running to 2030 will not be held hostage to the next election. A partnership that depends on one prime minister’s temperament is not yet a bankable one.
Making the Reset Permanent
The best insurance against a relapse is to give both countries too much to lose. Three steps would help.
1. Sign CEPA on schedule. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has called the next 90 days a defining period, and Modi is expected to visit Canada around December. A signed agreement would tie Canadian exporters, pension funds and provinces to the relationship in a way no single politician could easily undo.
2. Build a standing security dialogue. Intelligence sharing on extremist financing, faster responses to threats against diplomats, and clear rules on extradition requests would move counter-terrorism from a source of friction to an area of routine cooperation.
3. Engage the mainstream diaspora. Most of Canada’s roughly 770,000 Sikhs are proud of both countries and have no interest in separatism. India should invest in them through investment channels, cultural ties and easier consular services, so the loudest voices in Surrey are no longer mistaken for the community as a whole.
A Partnership Worth Protecting
The past year shows that disputes rooted in domestic politics can be overcome when leaders choose interests over grievance. India held its ground on terrorism and sovereignty while keeping the door open. Canada, under new leadership, walked through it.
ow the numbers have to do the rest. Every uranium shipment, pension-fund investment, and IT contract gives both countries a reason to keep politics in its lane. Signing CEPA by December would turn C$70 billion from a slogan into a shared stake. That is the most reliable way to make sure the next quarrel ends in negotiation, not another freeze.
