Pakistan and Afghanistan in “Open War”: Causes, Escalation, and What Comes Next
Article by Pazdin Dalal
Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have erupted into what Islamabad now describes as an “open war,” marking the most serious breakdown in relations between the two neighbours in decades. What once appeared to be a strategic partnership between Pakistan and the Taliban has devolved into cross-border strikes, collapsing ceasefires, and rising fears of wider regional instability.
This article explains how we got here, the deeper political and historical drivers behind the conflict, and what the escalation could mean for the region — including India.
What Triggered the Latest Escalation?
The crisis intensified after Pakistan launched airstrikes on what it described as “terrorist hideouts” inside Afghanistan, targeting not only militant groups but also Taliban-linked military facilities in cities including Kabul and Kandahar. The operation — reportedly named Operation Righteous Fury — marked a significant shift.
Previously, Pakistan’s strikes were framed as limited actions against militant networks operating near the border. This time, Islamabad directly targeted Taliban government assets — a move that signalled a rupture in ties between the two governments.
Afghanistan responded with cross-border attacks across multiple provinces, claiming Pakistan’s strikes killed civilians. Border fighting has since resumed, and the fragile ceasefire that held intermittently over the past year has collapsed.
Pakistan’s defence minister publicly declared that the country’s “patience” had run out, characterising the situation as an open war.
Why Are Pakistan and Afghanistan Fighting?
At the heart of the conflict lies a familiar accusation: each side claims the other is sheltering militant groups responsible for attacks on its soil.
Pakistan’s Allegations
Pakistan blames the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — often called the Pakistani Taliban — for a surge in suicide bombings and attacks on security forces. Islamabad says the TTP operates from safe havens inside Afghanistan with the tacit approval, or at least tolerance, of the Taliban government.
The TTP was formed nearly two decades ago by militant groups seeking to overthrow the Pakistani state while supporting the Afghan Taliban’s insurgency against U.S. and NATO forces. Over the years, it has carried out deadly attacks on markets, mosques, military installations, airports and police stations across Pakistan.
Islamabad also claims that Baloch separatist militants — fighting for independence in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province — find sanctuary in Afghan territory.
Afghanistan’s Counter-Accusations
The Afghan Taliban denies offering haven to the TTP and instead accuses Pakistan of harbouring elements of ISIS (Islamic State Khorasan Province), which has carried out deadly attacks inside Afghanistan since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.
Both sides deny the allegations, but mutual distrust has deepened significantly since the Taliban regained control of Kabul.
The Deeper Historical Issues
The current conflict cannot be understood without examining three longstanding structural tensions:
1. The Disputed Durand Line
The 2,600-kilometre border between the two countries — known as the Durand Line — was drawn in 1893 by British colonial authorities. Pakistan inherited the boundary in 1947 after independence, but Afghanistan has never formally recognised it.
The porous, mountainous frontier cuts through ethnic Pashtun communities, allowing militant groups to move relatively easily across it. Periodic border clashes have occurred for decades, but the Taliban’s return to power has reignited tensions over fencing and border enforcement.
The Durand Line remains one of the most contentious and destabilising borders in South Asia.
2. The Refugee Crisis
Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghan refugees over four decades of war. However, Islamabad has recently hardened its policy, expelling hundreds of thousands of Afghans — including women, journalists, and rights activists.
Authorities now require Afghans to obtain visas to remain in the country, even those with refugee documentation. Mass deportations have placed a significant humanitarian strain on Afghanistan, which is already grappling with economic collapse and international isolation.
The refugee issue has added another layer of bitterness to bilateral ties.
3. The India Factor
Pakistan historically supported the Taliban in the 1990s to secure what it called “strategic depth” against India. The idea was to ensure a friendly government in Kabul that would not align with New Delhi.
However, in recent years, Afghanistan’s Taliban government has cautiously improved relations with India. New Delhi has provided humanitarian aid, reopened diplomatic channels, and expressed interest in investing in Afghanistan’s mining and hydroelectric sectors.
Pakistan has accused the Taliban of turning Afghanistan into a “colony of India,” reflecting Islamabad’s growing unease about India’s expanding footprint in Kabul.
Where Does India Stand?
India is closely monitoring the escalation. While an antagonistic Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship reduces Islamabad’s ability to use Afghan territory for strategic depth, a full-scale conflict would create instability that could harm India’s interests.
New Delhi has:
- Emphasised Afghanistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity
- Criticised Pakistan’s cross-border actions that result in civilian casualties
- Continued humanitarian and development engagement with Kabul
India is exploring economic opportunities in Afghanistan, including mining investments and hydroelectric projects — areas where China has also increased activity. A prolonged war could derail these plans and trigger another refugee crisis, complicating regional diplomacy.
What Could Happen Next?
Scenario 1: Negotiations and Mediation
Several regional powers — including Russia, China, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia — are reportedly attempting to mediate. A prolonged war would create space for extremist groups like ISIS to expand operations, raising global security concerns.
International stakeholders are aware that regional instability could spill beyond South Asia.
Scenario 2: Prolonged Military Conflict
If the conflict continues, it will likely remain asymmetrical:
- Pakistan is a nuclear-armed state with approximately 600,000 active personnel, thousands of armoured vehicles, and hundreds of combat aircraft.
- The Taliban has fewer than 200,000 fighters and limited air capability, but has extensive experience in guerrilla warfare.
While Afghanistan cannot match Pakistan conventionally, insurgency-style warfare could prolong instability for years.
Why This Conflict Matters Globally
Although the Pakistan-Afghanistan confrontation carries lower escalation risk than a Pakistan-India conflict, the consequences are still serious:
- Increased global terrorist threat
- Destabilisation of Central and South Asia
- Expanded operational space for ISIS and other extremist groups
- Humanitarian crises and refugee flows
The longer the conflict persists, the more unpredictable its regional spillover effects may become.
The Human Cost
For ordinary citizens, the renewed hostilities bring renewed fear.
In Pakistan, urban populations worry about militant attacks in major cities. In Afghanistan, civilians — already battered by decades of war — face displacement, poverty, and insecurity once again.
As one Afghan resident reportedly put it: “Misery has started again.”
Conclusion: A Relationship at Breaking Point
The declaration of “open war” between Pakistan and Afghanistan represents the collapse of a once-strategic relationship. Rooted in militant violence, disputed borders, refugee tensions, and geopolitical rivalries, the conflict reflects deeper structural fault lines that have been building for years.
Whether through mediation or continued military escalation, the coming months will determine whether this crisis becomes another prolonged chapter in South Asia’s turbulent history — or a turning point that reshapes regional alliances.
The stakes are not confined to Kabul and Islamabad. The implications extend across South Asia, Central Asia, and beyond.
Views expressed are those of the Author(s)
